Raw politics is back on the menu
Originally published in the Municipal Journal [02/05/25]
Last July, when commenting on the record worst Conservative general election result, I fell back on philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s aphorism of how, if a person stares into the abyss long enough, the abyss will eventually stare right back at them. Taking that famous line from the movie Jaws, the first point to take from the early results and indications is that the Conservative party is going to need a bigger abyss.
In fairness this hasn’t been a case of expectation management on behalf of CCHQ. Starting as they did from the apogee of Boris Johnson’s post vaccine rollout bounce, and holding 16 of the 24 local authorities going to the polls and the vast preponderance – 1,182 of the 1,641council seats up for grabs, the Conservatives had the most to lose.
But boy, have they seem to have lost it, and bigly. In their latest local electoral version of a Wagnerian ‘Gotterdammerung’, a swathe of historic blue marks on the Conservative county map look inevitably to fall as seats are tallied over the course of Friday to the predations of the Liberal Democrats in the west and south and to Reform and No Overall Control elsewhere.
This will be a hard blow for the Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives. Traditionally, oppositions start the long march back to No 10 by what they can win and do in local government. From a historic low base of 121 parliamentary seats can be added the risk of being eclipsed by the Liberal Democrats as the second party of local government for the first time since the late 1990s. Gaining the likes of Cornwall will further cement Sir Ed Davey’s activist base, leading to more western and southern discomfort in the Tory heartlands.
Which leads to the second point, which is that the road back gets a lot harder if the two-party paradigm in England has become a continental multi-party balanced mix. A new pattern that seems now in place as evidenced by the five-way split in the West of England Combined Authority voting.
Indeed, the rise of an insurgent start up Reform Party as an undeniable major presence, and at this time, a potential party of national government, marks the formal divide of the right. After the gain of hundreds of councillors and the Greater Lincolnshire, and in all likelihood, Hull, mayoralties at the first time of asking, the Conservative claim ‘Vote Reform, get Labour’ has lost its power.
For Reform themselves, the next few days might prove, should their vetting again prove patchy, a tiresome litany of dismissing newly elected cadres for past social media and other transgressions. When the dust settles, all eyes will be on how Reform led councils will adapt to the responsibility of leadership and delivering local services on a balanced budget. The exercise of power might be a corrective to their fervent hopes that there are countless millions to be saved by county level DOGE’s applying an Elon Musk like approach to shearing costs a hopelessly spendthrift English local government. Getting to grips with how the rising cost pressures of statutory services are eroding any semblance of local financial resilience may prove a steep and useful learning experience for those Reform members who haven’t served previously as Conservative councillors.
More intriguingly will be how Reform’s elected members seek to do pragmatic deals with Conservative and Labour and other councillors in those councils where there is no overall control in places like Northumberland where the Labour vote collapsed.
As a home in the Local Government Association, Reform’s new elected members will presumably be accommodated within the Independent Group, just as UKIP councillors were in the past. However, whether this church would be broad enough for the Green Party also, might test the ingenuity and wisdom of a papal conclave.
Just if not more intriguing is the thought of how Andrea Jenkyns as inaugural mayor for Greater Lincolnshire will adapt her campaigning style to a role which requires a form of strategic leadership. Mayor Jenkyns will be convenor in chief for the region holding responsibilities that behove strong partnership working with constituent local authorities and the whole gamut of economic and social anchors. Whether an insurgent attitude honed for the performance politics of TV studios will serve to advance the cause of economic renewal and place-based investment remains to be seen . The days of jubilant looking metro mayors taking selfies on their Downing Street get-togethers may well have had their day as we enter an era marked by the raw politics of national, regional and local disputation. Things could get tasty here.
When last held in 2021, Labour’s poor showing and loss of the Hartlepool by-election caused Sir Keir Starmer to consider quitting as party leader. This means with a low base of 336 council seats to defend and a single local authority in Doncaster. However, today, the disastrous result of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election strikes a chilling early blow, less than a year after the general election landslide. Reform’s teal threat in the Red Wall, as evinced by close to the wire counts for the Doncaster and North Tyneside mayoralties is now bitingly real.
Low turnout notwithstanding, the 2025 local elections hold for national commentators some kind of mirror up to reflect back the ever shifting and more complex patterns of popular preference. More important, however, at the level of place, is the impact of ballots cast yesterday for directing either vital frontline neighbourhood services or strategic local economic development choices at combined authority mayoral level.
The newly emergent place leaders should enjoy the rush of power over the sultry May bank holiday while they can. Next month’s spending review, and what follows from it, could well unleash a full range of resource challenges and wicked local problems in the next four years of their political cycle.
Jonathan Werran is chief executive, Localis